Archive for September 2011
Iran Or North Korea – Who is the Biggest Nuclear Threat?
September 26, 2011 | 
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With the political battle going on in Iran and the national anthem named “Death to America” to the sick and twisted mind of Kim Jong-Il in North Korea using Hawaii as target practice for nuclear weapons, it is hard to determine on thing. Who is the biggest threat? There are many issues surrounding these claims that the countries would pose a threat to America and the world. The different views of the citizens of these countries view Americans and other people as loving people and don’t want to bring harm to anyone. There are many who feel that there is a threat that is fueled by different rumors and assumptions. Many people feel that there is a bigger threat than both these countries. But behind the Parliament doors, it is a different story.
In Iran there is, as stated earlier, a national anthem called “Death to America”. Many would view this as an empty threat and that it is just a time old tradition that the Iranian people sing to support their country. Others view this as a threat that they will attack America when they can. It is difficult to decide to what is the meaning of national anthem when parliament allowed for it to be sung time and time again.
Middle East Military Build Up, Nuclear Iran, and Global Weapon Selling Dialogue
Many futurists, academics, world leaders, and of course, the peace activist crowd say that humankind is going mad. “Why all these weapon sales,” they ask? Didn’t someone once warn us “you cannot simultaneously prepare for and prevent war,” yes, and it was Einstein, but a nation has the right and the responsibility to protect itself and its citizenry; and Karl von Clausewitz the famous military philosopher would explain to all these folks why. Now then, let’s talk:
It is quite evident that Iran is also playing chess with IAEA, UN, and the US and by us engaging this game, we are making them appear stronger and more important than they actually are. Meanwhile as they are buying time, there is massive build up in the Middle East allowing for weapons sales, serving our Industrial Military Complex, and Russia, and other sellers of weapons in the EU as well. It’s good business, but also akin to 120 tons of underbrush un-cleared in a California Mountain forest the day before a thunderstorm or an arsonist with a blow-torch.
Not long ago, I was discussing this with a researcher in Post-Cold War US-Russian Relations, Jesse Giraldo, and we were comparing the standoff today with Iran from previous such challenges in past history. To my comments above he stated; [Haha], you paint an accurate picture. It’s no secret that America has a sorted history of supplying arms to questionable powers but this tactic isn’t as asinine as it sounds. The United States of America possesses the most advanced standing army in the world. Our technology and military supremacy ensures a strategic advantage that cannot be overcome by conventional tactics.
True enough indeed, thus he added “…[and], what this means for the U.S is that it is in our best interest as a superpower and a top supplier of military equipment to arm the world and create conflicts that keep the nations of the world divided and engaged in struggle.”
Well, as anyone reading this may have guessed, I am very pro-American and so, I won’t go there, but I can say that humans create conflict, and don’t need the help of the US either way. Humans have been killing their own species over resources, food supply, women, religion (ideals), color of skin, territory, trade, economics, and sport for all of human history. They need not make the excuse that the US causes the wars, although Hugo Chavez, Radical Islam, and war protesters the world over amplified by the media for sound and fury sound bites proclaim. I don’t buy it.
Giraldo, on the other hand reminds us that; “In fact from a purely realist geopolitical stand point the worst thing we as a nation could do is to stop arming other nations. America is a master of war, we have perfected its techniques and are unmatched in its arts. Consider, what are our key strengths? Why does America continue to be the last remaining superpower?”
Yet, the reality is that in essence, the US does run the world economically. GDP of 14-17 Trillion, next nearest nation isn’t even 5 trillion. At one point before the global economic crisis our GDP was equal to the other 9 of the top 10 GDPs of the whole world. Even the EU all together barely equaled the US and that was with them cheating in their figures, often with trickery accounting.
The argument that the US causes wars through its weapon sales or purposely creates conflict throughout the world to keep itself in power, may not be the fairest assessment, but our enemies would surely have you believe that, so many people do in fact. Please consider all this.
Iran And The Nuclear Bomb
The first nuclear bomb was detonated on July 16, 1945 in the desert of New Mexico. It was a great feat of achievement for the United States. As a result, two atomic bombs were dropped onto the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in less than a month later. That was the only instance when nuclear weapons were used against another nation.
Almost sixty-six years have passed since then. The US is no longer the only nation to possess nuclear weapons. Russia, UK, France, China, India and Pakistan have the bomb in their arsenal. Israel and North Korea are speculated to have nuclear weapons while Iran is suspected of working on acquiring nuclear weapons. Mankind is still besieged by the fear that a nuclear weapon might be used against another nation in a war or as an act of terror. One of the greatest mistakes of man, apart from building a weapon that has the potential to wipe out all life forms from the face of Earth, is the failure to devise a workable defense against a nuclear attack. Missile interceptors are not an absolute defense against nuclear weapons. This “invincibility” combined with its destructive force is the reason why nuclear weapons are feared by every nation on this planet.
The current buzz is surrounding the nuclear activities of Iran. The US and its allies, particularly Israel, are concerned with the nuclear intention of Iran’s leadership. Ironically, it was the US and its allies that assisted Iran’s nuclear activities in the 1970s through the Atoms for Peace program. Iran, at the time, was under the reign of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The Shah was replaced after the Iranian Revolution in 1978 and Iran was established as an Islamic republic.
In assessing the nuclear threat from Iran, I attempted to understand their intentions and capabilities. These are the two important factors that need examining if we are to understand the direction of Iran’s nuclear train.
1. Intention
Energy or bomb? That’s what analysts and intelligence experts are having a hard time trying to prove. The US, Israel and other allied nations are quite certain that Iran is working towards building a nuclear bomb. In order to provide fuel for nuclear energy plants, the uranium used has to be enriched to 5% while a nuclear weapon would require it to be enriched to 90%, at least. Recently, Iran announced that it would triple its efforts to enrich uranium to a higher concentration of 20%. At 20%, the uranium can be used to fuel medical reactors. It also plans to move the enrichment activities to an underground facility. It can take up to a year to move from 5% enrichment to 20% enrichment. However, once enriched to 20%, the uranium stock can be further enriched to a weapons-grade 90% level within two weeks.
Another indication to Iran’s intention is an article posted on the official website of its Revolutionary Guards, who are responsible for Iran’s nuclear program. The article discusses the reaction of the world a day after Iran tests its first nuclear bomb. It is perplexing that a nation that has consistently maintained that it has no intentions of acquiring nuclear weapons would ponder such a scenario. Iran has also repeatedly announced that the destruction of Israel is imminent. Iran has gone to the extent of displaying banners that read “Death to America! Death to Israel!” during its military parades. It does seem that Iran has the intentions to build an A-bomb and, most likely, launch it against Israel.
However, is it possible that a nation would risk the retaliation that would follow such an act? According to a former CIA spy who infiltrated the Revolutionary Guards, the Iranian leaders hold strongly to the prophesied arrival of the twelfth Shiite Imam, Imam Mahdi, who will establish a global Islamic nation. Apparently, there has to be considerable chaos in the world in order for the Imam to appear. He will only appear when the world is on the verge of apocalypse. The Iranian leaders believe that by creating the environment for the arrival of their Imam, they are performing a holy act. If this is true, the Iranians would welcome a retaliation rather than fear it!
2. Capability
A nuclear weapon requires fissile material, either uranium or plutonium, and a delivery system. According to the latest IAEA data, Iran has sufficient amount of uranium for at least three bombs. Iran has also been working quite aggressively at improving its missile capabilities. Although they are not known to have any Inter-continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Iran has medium-range missiles that can hit Israel, any location within the gulf and Western Europe. An IAEA report dated May 24th, states that Iran is close to producing a nuclear warhead that could be carried by one of their medium-range missiles. Iran has also, reportedly, re-designed the cone of its Shehab-3 missile to carry a nuclear warhead. Iran is not short on capabilities to build and deliver a nuclear payload.
There are many more details that can be discussed but it would be unnecessary since they all point to one thing. Iran is building nuclear weapons and is on track to having them very soon. As the international community continues to apply pressure on the Iranian leadership via sanctions, we can only hope that the world does not see another mushroom cloud.
Posted in iran nuclear | 
Tags: Intention Energy, Iranian Revolution, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi | 
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